Readers Wells: Panther, Blue Heeler Wells -- Zavanna -- Stony Creek -- 155-100-16

Tucker's minerals: 155-100-16. See also this post regarding landman offer.

Updates

February 25, 2020:

on this date, the last four Panther wells went from DUCs (SI/NC) to conf status; daily activity report, February 25, 2020 (#36418, #36419, #36420, #36421)
this suggests to me (and the file reports confirm it) that these last four wells have been drilled to depth;
this fact, plus the fact that #21226 has been off line since May, 2019, suggests that these wells have all been fracked (fracked back in June, 2019, time frame)
FracFocus: #36418 was fracked 12/23/19- 1/5/20 (more on this later)
FracFocus: #36543, was fracked 1/12/20 - 1/28/20 (more on this later)
bottom line: all Panther wells have been fracked, and have been producing for quite some time; I expect to see "runs" soon, but they just went on confidential status today -- which means they could be confidential for quite some time;

The wells:

21226, 996, Zavanna, Panther 16-21H, Stony Creek, t4/12; cum 426K 5/19; off line as of 6/19; back on line 2/20; huge jump in production;
36418, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-22 5TFH XE, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a Three Forks well on 2560-acre spacing, which if accurate, would cut one's interest in half compared to the standard 1280-acre unit; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 126K 1/21;
36419, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a middle Bakken well on 1280-acre spacing; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 181K 1/21;
36421, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 200K 1/21;
36420, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 144K 1/21;
36544, drl-->conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16-4H, this one was added August 2, 2019, as a new permit; 1280-acre spacing according to the permit; sections 16/21; noted to be on drl status in late September, 2019; first production, 11/20; t--; cum --; a 31K month;
36543, 2 sections; drl-->conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 3TFH, added August 2, 2019; first production, 12/20; t--; cum --; a 24K month;
36542, 58 (no typo)/F/A, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-17 2H XE, 4 sections, Banks, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 90K 1/21; stimulated 1/12/2020; 42 stages; a 31K month;

***************************************

Decimal Units

One net mineral acre in a 1280-acre drilling unit = 0.00078125

A one-sixth (16.67%) base royalty of that interest = 0.000130208333

Example:

assumption: each new well will produce 150,000 bbls of crude oil in the first year
assumption: four new wells, therefore, will produce 600,000 bbls of crude oil in the first year
although WTI is priced at $50, Bakken oil is selling for about $40/bbl
now, 600,000 x 0.000130208333 = 78 bbls
78 bbls x $40 = $3,120 for those four new wells in the first year
if three wells are 1280-acre spacing and one well is 2560-acre spacing, then the amount should change to $2,730 / first year for the four new wells
there is an existing producing well, #21226, which has not been factored into this

Bottom line:

when the new wells finally go into production, the reader might see $3,000 in royalty payment the first year and then a decline after that. The decline will be slow the first year or so but then will decline quickly
the wells could be completed / fracked by the end of the year, though the company can wait as long as two years to complete the wells
even if things are "expedited," the reader should not expect to see any "new" money from these new wells for six to 12 months

***************************************

The Graphics

The wells (this section won't be updated any more; the updates will be at the top):

21226, 996, Zavanna, Panther 16-21H, Stony Creek, t4/12; cum 426K 5/19; off line as of 6/19;
36418, drl, Zavanna, Panther 16-22 5TFH XE, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a Three Forks well on 2560-acre spacing, which if accurate, would cut one's interest in half compared to the standard 1280-acre unit;
36419, drl, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a middle Bakken well on 1280-acre spacing;
36421 SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019;
36420, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019;
36544, drl, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16-4H, this one was added August 2, 2019, as a new permit; 1280-acre spacing according to the permit; sections 16/21; noted to be on drl status in late September, 2019;
36543, 2 sections; loc, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 3TFH, added August 2, 2019
36542, 4 sections; loc, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-17 2H XE, added August 2, 2019