Friday, September 27, 2019

The Anna Wells -- Runs

The Anna wells are tracked here.

September 28, 2023, update:

Runs


Jul 23

Jun 23

May 23

Apr 23

Mar 23

Feb 23

Jan 23

The “Anna” Wells


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

32967


106

161

236

962

1329

1240

949

32966


345

630

628

654

822

474

147

30155


316

476

458

430

717

523

542

30154


475

716

353

373

482

334

342

32969


23

269

529

282

445

907

927

30156


501

604

402

723

831

866

766

32968


479

569

485

762

1082

815

538

23279


956

948

635

900

963

944

1183

30157


1454

2134

2002

2026

1787

1615

1794

Total Runs

0

4,655

6,507

5,728

7,112

8,458

7,718

7,188

August 2, 2020, update:

Runs












The “Anna” Wells
June 20
May 20
Apr 20
Mar 20
Feb 20
Jan 20
Dec 19
Nov 19
Oct 19
Sept 2019
August 2019
July 2019
30157
570
486
2791
2575
2940
2750
3808
3578
4346
4301
3882
3184
30156
0
192
2253
1158
1403
1482
1058
1846
2390
2156
330
764
30155
0
75
575
1072
1914
3377
2108
2380
2663
444
1449
983
30154
0
231
1275
1011
3154
1469
2342
3128
3514
398
1786
1171
32969
0
211
1302
1455
2071
1169
20
304
1419
1099
704
977
32968
2539
297
1210
0
0
118
1076
231
103
1344
1586
1123
32967
0
52
419
821
1236
1041
550
55
867
2431
2701
2630
32966
0
0
730
1392
1512
1139
612
529
814
422
1786
3534
23279
0
0
1695
1800
706
1210
1660
1185
2135
1515
1844
1330
Total
3,109
1,544
12,250
11,284
14,936
13,755
13,234
13,236
18,251
14,110
16,068
15,696

The huge drop in "runs" for #32966, August, 2019, compared with July, 2019:
  • July, 2019: 31 days of production, 3,550 bbls
  • August, 2019: 18 days of production, 1,527 bbls

Now, a further drop:

  • July, 2023: runs --  345 bbls;

Panther, Blue Heeler Wells -- Zavanna -- Stony Creek -- 155-100-16

Tucker's minerals: 155-100-16. See also this post regarding landman offer

Updates

February 25, 2020:
  • on this date, the last four Panther wells went from DUCs (SI/NC) to conf status; daily activity report, February 25, 2020 (#36418, #36419, #36420, #36421)
  • this suggests to me (and the file reports confirm it) that these last four wells have been drilled to depth;
  • this fact, plus the fact that #21226 has been off line since May, 2019, suggests that these wells have all been fracked (fracked back in June, 2019, time frame)
  • FracFocus: #36418 was fracked 12/23/19- 1/5/20 (more on this later)
  • FracFocus: #36543, was fracked 1/12/20 - 1/28/20 (more on this later)
  • bottom line: all Panther wells have been fracked, and have been producing for quite some time; I expect to see "runs" soon, but they just went on confidential status today -- which means they could be confidential for quite some time;
The wells:
  • 21226, 996, Zavanna, Panther 16-21H, Stony Creek, t4/12; cum 426K 5/19; off line as of 6/19; back on line 2/20; huge jump in production;
  • 36418, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-22 5TFH XE, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a Three Forks well on 2560-acre spacing, which if accurate, would cut one's interest in half compared to the standard 1280-acre unit; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 126K 1/21;
  • 36419, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a middle Bakken well on 1280-acre spacing; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 181K 1/21;
  • 36421, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 200K 1/21;
  • 36420, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 144K 1/21;
  • 36544, drl-->conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16-4H, this one was added August 2, 2019, as a new permit; 1280-acre spacing according to the permit; sections 16/21; noted to be on drl status in late September, 2019; first production, 11/20; t--; cum --; a 31K month;
  • 36543, 2 sections; drl-->conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 3TFH, added August 2, 2019; first production, 12/20; t--; cum --; a 24K month;
  • 36542, 58 (no typo)/F/A, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-17 2H XE, 4 sections, Banks, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 90K 1/21; stimulated 1/12/2020; 42 stages; a 31K month;
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Decimal Units

One net mineral acre in a 1280-acre drilling unit = 0.00078125

A one-sixth (16.67%) base royalty of that interest = 0.000130208333

Example:
  • assumption: each new well will produce 150,000 bbls of crude oil in the first year
  • assumption: four new wells, therefore, will produce 600,000 bbls of crude oil in the first year 
  • although WTI is priced at $50, Bakken oil is selling for about $40/bbl
  • now, 600,000 x 0.000130208333 = 78 bbls
  • 78 bbls x $40 = $3,120 for those four new wells in the first year
  • if three wells are 1280-acre spacing and one well is 2560-acre spacing, then the amount should change to $2,730 / first year for the four new wells 
  • there is an existing producing well, #21226, which has not been factored into this 
Bottom line:
  • when the new wells finally go into production, the reader might see $3,000 in royalty payment the first year and then a decline after that. The decline will be slow the first year or so but then will decline quickly
  • the wells could be completed / fracked by the end of the year, though the company can wait as long as two years to complete the wells
  • even if things are "expedited," the reader should not expect to see any "new" money from these new wells for six to 12 months
***************************************
The Graphics






The wells (this section won't be updated any more; the updates will be at the top):
  • 21226, 996, Zavanna, Panther 16-21H, Stony Creek, t4/12; cum 426K 5/19; off line as of 6/19;
  • 36418, drl, Zavanna, Panther 16-22 5TFH XE, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a Three Forks well on 2560-acre spacing, which if accurate, would cut one's interest in half compared to the standard 1280-acre unit;
  • 36419, drl, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a middle Bakken well on 1280-acre spacing;
  • 36421 SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019;
  • 36420, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019;
  • 36544, drl, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16-4H, this one was added August 2, 2019, as a new permit; 1280-acre spacing according to the permit; sections 16/21; noted to be on drl status in late September, 2019;
  • 36543, 2 sections; loc, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 3TFH, added August 2, 2019
  • 36542, 4 sections; loc, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-17 2H XE, added August 2, 2019
Permit application for #36544:


Permit application for #36543:


Permit application for #36542: