The Anna Wells -- Runs

The Anna wells are tracked here.

September 28, 2023, update:

Runs		Jul 23	Jun 23	May 23	Apr 23	Mar 23	Feb 23	Jan 23
The “Anna” Wells
32967		106	161	236	962	1329	1240	949
32966		345	630	628	654	822	474	147
30155		316	476	458	430	717	523	542
30154		475	716	353	373	482	334	342
32969		23	269	529	282	445	907	927
30156		501	604	402	723	831	866	766
32968		479	569	485	762	1082	815	538
23279		956	948	635	900	963	944	1183
30157		1454	2134	2002	2026	1787	1615	1794
Total Runs	0	4,655	6,507	5,728	7,112	8,458	7,718	7,188

August 2, 2020, update:

Runs
The “Anna” Wells	June 20	May 20	Apr 20	Mar 20	Feb 20	Jan 20	Dec 19	Nov 19	Oct 19	Sept 2019	August 2019	July 2019
30157	570	486	2791	2575	2940	2750	3808	3578	4346	4301	3882	3184
30156	0	192	2253	1158	1403	1482	1058	1846	2390	2156	330	764
30155	0	75	575	1072	1914	3377	2108	2380	2663	444	1449	983
30154	0	231	1275	1011	3154	1469	2342	3128	3514	398	1786	1171
32969	0	211	1302	1455	2071	1169	20	304	1419	1099	704	977
32968	2539	297	1210	0	0	118	1076	231	103	1344	1586	1123
32967	0	52	419	821	1236	1041	550	55	867	2431	2701	2630
32966	0	0	730	1392	1512	1139	612	529	814	422	1786	3534
23279	0	0	1695	1800	706	1210	1660	1185	2135	1515	1844	1330
Total	3,109	1,544	12,250	11,284	14,936	13,755	13,234	13,236	18,251	14,110	16,068	15,696

The huge drop in "runs" for #32966, August, 2019, compared with July, 2019:

• July, 2019: 31 days of production, 3,550 bbls
• August, 2019: 18 days of production, 1,527 bbls

Now, a further drop:

• July, 2023: runs --  345 bbls;

Panther, Blue Heeler Wells -- Zavanna -- Stony Creek -- 155-100-16

Tucker's minerals: 155-100-16. See also this post regarding landman offer. 

Updates

February 25, 2020:

• on this date, the last four Panther wells went from DUCs (SI/NC) to conf status; daily activity report, February 25, 2020 (#36418, #36419, #36420, #36421)
• this suggests to me (and the file reports confirm it) that these last four wells have been drilled to depth;
• this fact, plus the fact that #21226 has been off line since May, 2019, suggests that these wells have all been fracked (fracked back in June, 2019, time frame)
• FracFocus: #36418 was fracked 12/23/19- 1/5/20 (more on this later)
• FracFocus: #36543, was fracked 1/12/20 - 1/28/20 (more on this later)
• bottom line: all Panther wells have been fracked, and have been producing for quite some time; I expect to see "runs" soon, but they just went on confidential status today -- which means they could be confidential for quite some time;

The wells:

• 21226, 996, Zavanna, Panther 16-21H, Stony Creek, t4/12; cum 426K 5/19; off line as of 6/19; back on line 2/20; huge jump in production;
  
• 36418, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-22 5TFH XE, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a Three Forks well on 2560-acre spacing, which if accurate, would cut one's interest in half compared to the standard 1280-acre unit; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 126K 1/21;
  
• 36419, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a middle Bakken well on 1280-acre spacing; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 181K 1/21;
  
• 36421, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 200K 1/21;
• 36420, SI/NC-->conf (Feb 25, 2020)-->A/GL, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 144K 1/21;
  
• 36544, drl-->conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16-4H, this one was added August 2, 2019, as a new permit; 1280-acre spacing according to the permit; sections 16/21; noted to be on drl status in late September, 2019; first production, 11/20; t--; cum --; a 31K month;
  
• 36543, 2 sections; drl-->conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 3TFH, added August 2, 2019; first production, 12/20; t--; cum --; a 24K month;
• 36542, 58 (no typo)/F/A, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-17 2H XE, 4 sections, Banks, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 90K 1/21; stimulated 1/12/2020; 42 stages; a 31K month;

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Decimal Units

One net mineral acre in a 1280-acre drilling unit = 0.00078125

A one-sixth (16.67%) base royalty of that interest = 0.000130208333

Example:

• assumption: each new well will produce 150,000 bbls of crude oil in the first year
• assumption: four new wells, therefore, will produce 600,000 bbls of crude oil in the first year 
• although WTI is priced at $50, Bakken oil is selling for about $40/bbl
• now, 600,000 x 0.000130208333 = 78 bbls
• 78 bbls x $40 = $3,120 for those four new wells in the first year
• if three wells are 1280-acre spacing and one well is 2560-acre spacing, then the amount should change to $2,730 / first year for the four new wells 
• there is an existing producing well, #21226, which has not been factored into this 

Bottom line:

• when the new wells finally go into production, the reader might see $3,000 in royalty payment the first year and then a decline after that. The decline will be slow the first year or so but then will decline quickly
• the wells could be completed / fracked by the end of the year, though the company can wait as long as two years to complete the wells
• even if things are "expedited," the reader should not expect to see any "new" money from these new wells for six to 12 months

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The Graphics

The wells (this section won't be updated any more; the updates will be at the top):

• 21226, 996, Zavanna, Panther 16-21H, Stony Creek, t4/12; cum 426K 5/19; off line as of 6/19;
• 36418, drl, Zavanna, Panther 16-22 5TFH XE, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a Three Forks well on 2560-acre spacing, which if accurate, would cut one's interest in half compared to the standard 1280-acre unit;
• 36419, drl, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek, the name suggests this is a middle Bakken well on 1280-acre spacing;
• 36421 SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019;
• 36420, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, noted to be on SI/NC in late September, 2019;
• 36544, drl, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16-4H, this one was added August 2, 2019, as a new permit; 1280-acre spacing according to the permit; sections 16/21; noted to be on drl status in late September, 2019;
• 36543, 2 sections; loc, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 3TFH, added August 2, 2019
• 36542, 4 sections; loc, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-17 2H XE, added August 2, 2019

Permit application for #36544:

Permit application for #36543:

Permit application for #36542: